Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Clashes Continue
25% Chance
Russia avoids a declared attack on NATO but keeps testing the alliance through drones, jamming, cyberattacks, airspace violations, and maritime pressure. NATO responds with intercepts, sanctions, and limited military measures while trying to prevent horizontal escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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