Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp Opens
18% Chance
The sharper NATO strategy is paired with renewed deconfliction to reduce the risk of accidental war. Moscow and NATO remain adversaries, but communication channels, incident protocols, or Ukraine talks lower near-term escalation premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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