Possible scenario
Prolonged Communications Disruption
25% Chance
The strike causes deeper damage to switching, data-center, or backbone infrastructure, keeping parts of the network degraded for several days. This would have operational consequences for civilians, emergency services, and military logistics, but still remains primarily a Ukraine-centered shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.