Possible scenario
Broader Infrastructure Campaign
20% Chance
Russia follows the Kyivstar strike with attacks on electricity substations, data centers, and telecom switching nodes. The pattern suggests an intentional campaign to degrade Ukrainian communications heading into colder weather and could create a modest global risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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