Possible scenario
State-Link Evidence Emerges
23% Chance
A more destabilizing scenario is that the trial produces credible evidence connecting the sabotage network to Ukrainian security structures such as HUR or the SBU. Even without proving a presidential order, such evidence would strain German-Ukrainian relations and complicate parliamentary support for future aid.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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