Possible scenario
Case Collapses
18% Chance
A plausible defense victory would center on gaps in the chain of custody, identification evidence, or extradition limitations from Italy. That would not end the German investigation, but it would undermine confidence in the prosecution’s reconstruction of the 2022 attack.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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