Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Risk
20% Chance
Russian strikes near western Ukraine and cross-border debris incidents increase the perceived risk of NATO involvement. The most likely result is heightened air policing and sanctions pressure, not direct military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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