Possible scenario
Prolonged Urban Blackouts
30% Chance
Russia sustains attacks on substations, thermal generation and repair depots, leaving Kyiv and other major cities with unreliable power and communications. Ukraine avoids a total grid collapse, but the humanitarian and military logistics burden rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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