Possible scenario
Operational Error Contained
46% Chance
The Japan Meteorological Agency confirms the false magnitude 9.9 alert was caused by a software, data-entry, or calibration workflow failure rather than cyber intrusion. The Cabinet Secretariat accepts the initial finding, and the episode remains a public-sector reliability issue rather than a market-moving national security event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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