Possible scenario
Deterrence and diplomacy
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the United States, Oman, and UN channels push for de-escalation while reinforcing Saudi air defenses. This path reduces the probability of repeated airport strikes, though a limited retaliatory move remains possible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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