Possible scenario
Limited Houthi escalation
30% Chance
Houthi forces continue probing Saudi air defenses with drones and missiles, keeping airport risk elevated but avoiding a decisive hit on oil infrastructure. Airlines trim schedules and governments issue tougher travel language, but the conflict remains below a regional-war threshold.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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