Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Escalation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds to the airport damage with new military action against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. This outcome is plausible because Saudi Arabia had already rejected the Houthi truce proposal and may seek to restore deterrence after repeated airport attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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