Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities keep Dammam operations restricted while repairs and debris inspections proceed, but no major oil or military infrastructure is hit. This is the base case because recent attacks have targeted airports and caused flight disruption without yet producing large-scale infrastructure losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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