Scaling limits prevail

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The pretraining speed is real but applies mainly to small models and selected reasoning benchmarks. Enterprises and developers continue to rely on larger proprietary systems for high-value production workloads, limiting the disruption to existing AI leaders.

What it moves

Technology−0.7%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Scaling limits prevail

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