Possible scenario
Sovereignty Dispute Widens
30% Chance
The deployment becomes a sovereignty dispute, with Panama arguing that Washington exceeded bilateral security agreements. The U.S. keeps the mission limited, but public protests and regional criticism create a modest risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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