Possible scenario
Cartel Operation Escalates
15% Chance
The deployment becomes operationally visible through raids, interdictions, or armed confrontations tied to cartel networks moving through the Darién Gap and Caribbean routes. Markets treat this as a contained security escalation unless casualties or mission creep appear.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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