Possible scenario
Orderly December Launch
45% Chance
Sberbank proceeds with crypto trading on Dec. 1 under the new Russian regulated-circulation framework. The launch is treated as an incremental financial-market development because it was heavily signaled by the Sept. 22 legalization, Sberbank's Oct. 7 custodian registration, and Moscow Exchange's Dec. 1 trading schedule.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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