Possible scenario
Probe Stays Contained
45% Chance
The immunity vote allows prosecutors to proceed, but the case remains a narrow phone-theft matter rather than a governing crisis. Magyar cooperates publicly, frames the proceeding as proof of institutional normalization after Orbán, and keeps his parliamentary majority together.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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