Scenario description
Assume global diesel and middle-distillate markets remain materially tight through 2027-03-31. The initiating condition is that the IEA-described shortage in gasoil and other middle distillates continues despite some recovery in refinery throughput, with recognized energy-market reporting near the cutoff still describing constrained diesel/gasoil supply, inventories that are low, falling, or not rebuilding beyond normal seasonal patterns, or elevated diesel/gasoil crack spreads. The geography is global, with emphasis on major consuming and trading regions covered by the IEA, EIA, MarketBrief, or comparable recognized energy-market sources. The supplied evidence reports that the IEA expected gasoil to fail to meet demand in fourth-quarter 2026 and diesel stockpiles not to begin replenishing outside seasonal patterns until the second half of 2027; it does not provide exact inventory volumes, shortage volumes, crack-spread thresholds, refinery-run levels, or a regional allocation of the constraint.