Possible scenario
Managed Verbal Escalation
45% Chance
Netanyahu and Erdogan continue using maximalist rhetoric, but both governments avoid steps that would create a direct bilateral crisis. Intelligence, trade enforcement, and consular channels remain strained but functional because neither side wants a NATO-linked confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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