Possible scenario
Economic Retaliation
25% Chance
Turkey converts the rhetorical clash into additional economic restrictions, building on earlier Gaza-related trade limits. Israel answers with legal, customs, or procurement countermeasures rather than military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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