Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates
22% Chance
Kyiv responds by attempting to hit Russian drone infrastructure, continuing the pattern shown by its September 21 strike on a Shahed launch base. Retaliation is likely to remain focused on military nodes rather than a broad escalation campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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