Possible scenario
Contained Kyiv Strike
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the strike remains another severe but contained episode in Russia's ongoing campaign against Kyiv. Ukrainian air defenses intercept most drones, emergency repairs begin, and the diplomatic response is condemnatory but does not materially alter the war's trajectory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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