Possible scenario
Prolonged Toss-Up
20% Chance
The race remains highly competitive through Election Day, with absentee ballots, AI-related campaign disputes, and legal challenges delaying a clear outcome. The district becomes a national symbol of the messy 2026 House fight rather than an immediate partisan signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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