Possible scenario
Democratic Breakthrough
35% Chance
Gendebien's lead proves to be an early sign that anti-Trump midterm sentiment is reaching even deep-red districts such as NY-21. The result becomes part of a broader Democratic push against Trump-won House seats and raises the odds of a Democratic House majority.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.