Possible scenario
Fragile Bargaining Phase
−0.1%
Eisenkot receives the mandate but negotiations become protracted over security policy, budgets for Arab municipalities, religion-and-state issues, and cabinet portfolios. The base case remains eventual formation, but the process is noisy and vulnerable to defections.
What it moves
- Finance−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.