Sanctions Hold Firm

The most likely path is that the EU ban becomes a durable sanctions line rather than a trigger for immediate escalation. Arctic LNG, oilfield services, financing, and insurance restrictions slow Russian projects such as Arctic LNG 2 and Vostok Oil, while global supply effects remain modest because the measures hit future capacity more than current flows.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.