Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds with military signaling, selective commodity restrictions, or harassment of European infrastructure. This would turn a sanctions story into a broader geopolitical risk event, lifting energy prices and defense shares while hurting utilities and risk appetite.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Utilities -1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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