Possible scenario
Retaliation Spreads Locally
25% Chance
The riot becomes another flashpoint in the Los Chapitos-La Mayiza struggle that intensified after Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 U.S. arrest. Retaliatory shootings, burned vehicles, and targeted killings spread across Sinaloa but do not become a national crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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