Possible scenario
Limited Wartime Continuation
45% Chance
Russia continues using Iranian-style Shahed drones and missiles against Kyiv, but the attack remains within the established pattern of the war rather than a major escalation. Ukraine prioritizes air-defense allocation around the capital while waiting for recently secured Patriot support to arrive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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