Possible scenario
Broader Strike Escalation
20% Chance
Russia follows the deadly strike with larger waves targeting the capital's grid and air-defense nodes. This would still fall short of a new war declaration or NATO entry, but it would be a material escalation in operational intensity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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