Possible scenario
RN Lead Hardens
45% Chance
Edouard Philippe's fall to 10% makes it harder for the pro-Macron and center-right camps to produce a credible first-round challenger. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella benefit from the fragmented field and the continued association of centrist candidates with political paralysis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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