Possible scenario
Anti-RN Recomposition
25% Chance
Philippe's weakness accelerates pressure for an anti-RN consolidation before the presidential campaign becomes irreversible. A credible center-left or moderate unity candidate would reduce the probability of a Le Pen victory and provide short-term relief for French risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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