Possible scenario
Selective State Clashes
25% Chance
The administration attempts narrower interventions in selected battleground states rather than a true nationwide seizure. The most plausible pressure points are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, where state officials and county clerks would seek immediate court relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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