Possible scenario
Plan Corroborated Nationally
20% Chance
Documents, testimony, or agency communications substantiate that advisers discussed a coordinated national ballot custody operation. Even if the plan is not fully executed, confirmation would create a material constitutional crisis and force emergency action by courts, Congress, and state governments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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