Possible scenario
Contained Strike Campaign
45% Chance
Russia continues targeting Ukraine’s power grid and port infrastructure, but the attacks remain within the current war pattern rather than becoming a wider regional shock. Ukraine repairs damage quickly enough to maintain grain exports and prevent a nationwide power collapse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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