Possible scenario
Black Sea Disruption
18% Chance
Repeated strikes on port hubs raise concerns that Russia is trying to degrade Ukraine’s reopened grain corridor without formally blockading it. The main market channel is food logistics and shipping risk rather than energy supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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