Possible scenario
GOP Reallocates Efficiently
25% Chance
The CLF cut does not mean Republicans fully abandon the race; instead, national strategists conclude expensive Omaha broadcast ads are inefficient. The NRCC, state Republican groups, and the nominee rely on cheaper digital targeting, direct mail, and local events to keep the contest competitive.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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