Possible scenario
Republican States Follow
18% Chance
The issue becomes a model for Republican-led states seeking tougher domestic-extremism and Islamist-organization policies. The escalation remains political and legal rather than macroeconomic, but broader adoption increases uncertainty for nonprofits, universities and state contractors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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