Possible scenario
Isolated Cases Emerge
13% Chance
A small number of additional infections are detected among already monitored contacts, forcing officials to revise the initial all-clear but not implying broad community transmission. This would raise doubts about the timing of ending precautions while still remaining a localized health event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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