Possible scenario
Sanctions Stall Program
18% Chance
The program is delayed beyond next year because Iran lacks reliable heavy-fighter engines, active electronically scanned radar, modern avionics, and weapons integration capacity. Sanctions and export controls keep the effort fragmented despite public claims of progress.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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