Possible scenario
Russian-Backed Fighter Path
28% Chance
Iran may use the language of a homegrown heavy fighter while relying on Russian engines, avionics, pilot training, or complete Su-35 airframes. The earlier search for Russian-speaking Su-35 pilots points to a parallel procurement or technology-transfer track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- LMT+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.