Scenario description
Assume Iraq materially begins implementing its militia integration and disarmament roadmap by issuing binding implementation timelines or orders and taking at least one operational step to bring Iran-affiliated armed factions under state control, such as registering units for absorption into state security structures, taking custody of declared weapons or facilities, outlawing a noncomplying faction, or deploying state forces to enforce the plan. The geography is Iraq, with the federal government and Iran-affiliated armed groups including Kataib Hezbollah and other resistance factions in scope. Reported evidence does not provide the number of fighters, weapons, facilities, or budget costs affected, so those magnitudes remain unavailable. Also assume the announced halt in attacks by militias and U.S. forces remains materially intact during the observation period, with no renewed militia attack campaign that reverses the initial state-control step.