Scenario description
Assume Iraq's militia roadmap is materially blocked before initial implementation by renewed armed activity or political resistance from Iran-affiliated factions. This includes a renewed militia attack campaign, a government acknowledgment that implementation is suspended or unenforceable, or an open refusal by major factions that prevents the state from taking custody of weapons or absorbing/outlawing armed groups. The geography is Iraq and the affected entities are the federal government, Iran-affiliated militias, state security institutions, foreign contractors, and infrastructure exposed to Iraqi security conditions. Reported evidence does not quantify the number of attacks, fighters, weapons, or facilities that would mark the breakdown, so those magnitudes remain unavailable.