Possible scenario
Sanctions-Constrained Channel
25% Chance
China keeps the bridge open but limits activity to goods it can characterize as humanitarian or civilian. Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo monitor the crossing closely, but the base case remains compliance management rather than immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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