Possible scenario
McCarthy Returns
25% Chance
Kevin McCarthy offers Trump a more conventional political operator with ties to House Republicans, donors, and K Street. His selection would suggest a pivot toward legislative management and midterm damage control rather than a purely ideological West Wing structure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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