Possible scenario
Launch Or Payload Issue
15% Chance
A less likely but material branch is a technical issue with the booster, upper stage, or payload checkout. Because SpaceX has deep flight heritage, the most plausible adverse case is a limited review or delay rather than a catastrophic program setback.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.7%
- BA+0.2%
- LMT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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