Possible scenario
Contained Border Retaliation
23% Chance
Hezbollah uses the destruction report to justify limited retaliation while avoiding an all-out war with Israel. Israel responds with air and artillery strikes, but US, French, and Lebanese pressure keeps the confrontation mostly contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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