Possible scenario
Ceasefire Damage Litigation
38% Chance
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire largely holds while Lebanon, UNIFIL, and human-rights groups turn the destruction record into claims, documentation, and reconstruction demands. Israel disputes the legal framing but avoids a major new campaign because Washington and Paris press both sides to preserve the April 2026 truce.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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