Possible scenario
Open SpaceX Dispute
20% Chance
The dispute becomes public and adversarial, with Kyiv accusing SpaceX of using technical controls for political leverage. U.S. and EU officials are pulled into contract reviews, but the issue remains contained to defense connectivity and satellite communications rather than a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
- -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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